I started writing this when the Emmy nominations came out … let me check … TWO MONTHS AGO, but then my summer became messy and I had to travel a lot and the next thing you know this was no longer exactly “news” and I thought, “I’ll just save it for the week before the Emmys.” But then my late summer became even messier and I was suddenly driving across the country to Georgia where I got stuck by a hurricane and the next thing you know it’s the morning the Emmys are going to take place. Life comes at you fast and all that.
Anyway, here are my best guesses and thoughts on what is set to be a VERY WEIRD Emmys. Good luck to all the deserving nominees.
Outstanding Drama Series
The Boys
Bridgerton
The Crown
The Mandalorian
Lovecraft Country
Pose
The Handmaid’s Tale
This Is Us
Who will win:
The safe money is on The Crown — it tied The Mandalorian for most Emmy nominations this year, and it’s unlikely they are going to give the most prestigious award of the night to a sci-fi show with a puppet. That said, Pose could pull off a surprise win here if the voters are feeling particularly sentimental.
And just a side note: I’m thrilled to see so many unconventional drama series in here — half of the dramas nominated are in the sci-fi/horror category, a delightful and welcome change that I hope lasts a while. The turn by the academy to take genre series more seriously started with Game of Thrones, and The Handmaid’s Tale, so it’s not exactly an unprecedented development. But for half of the nominees to be of a sci-fi flavor is remarkable, and I hope it doesn’t end when more conventional series return. I mean, who’da thunk that a show that featured a prehensile 10-foot-long dick would be nominated for TV’s biggest prize?
Who should win:
I have actually seen every show on this list, and honestly? The show I enjoyed the most, and the show that I think was the most important political show of our current moment? The Boys. I find The Crown incredibly boring; Bridgerton was fun, but pure froth; The Mandalorian does amazing things with a puppet but lacks heft; Lovecraft Country was good but uneven; Pose is a little too sanctimonious; The Handmaid’s Tale is brilliant but difficult to watch as it’s way too close to home (especially for Texas women); and This Is Us continues to be a very good tearjerker, but its moment has come and gone. Unlike The Handmaid’s Tale which is also a cultural and political bellwether for the moment we are facing in this country, The Boys is not painful to watch — in fact, it’s just the opposite: a wicked and sly social commentary disguised as an entertaining romp. It won’t win, but if I had my druthers, it would.
Who was snubbed:
Perry Mason; Small Axe; For All Mankind; In Treatment
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Regé-Jean Page, Bridgerton
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Billy Porter, Pose
Jonathan Majors, Lovecraft Country
Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason
Josh O’Connor, The Crown
Who will win:
Josh O’Connor if The Crown is having a big night. Otherwise, the emotional favorite is probably Billy Porter.
Who should win:
Of these men, my choice would have been Billy Porter, but I would have had a hard time choosing between him and Matthew Rhys.
Who was snubbed:
Pedro Pascal for The Mandalorian; Anthony Starr for The Boys
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Emma Corrin, The Crown
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Uzo Aduba, In Treatment
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Jurnee Smollett, Lovecraft Country
Mj Rodriguez, Pose
Who will win:
Emma Corrin is the obvious shoo-in for this category, but keep your eye on Mj Rodriguez, the first trans actress to be nominated in a lead Emmys category. There’s a chance voters might want to make history by giving her a win.
Who should win:
Jurnee Smollett was strong and fierce and vulnerable in Lovecraft Country, but I would also be very happy for Mj Rodriguez to win this — she carried Pose.
Who was snubbed:
Phoebe Dynevor for Bridgerton; Tatiana Maslany in Perry Mason
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Michael K. Williams, Lovecraft Country
Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale
Max Minghella, The Handmaid’s Tale
O-T Fagbenle, The Handmaid’s Tale
John Lithgow, Perry Mason
Tobias Menzies, The Crown
Giancarlo Esposito, The Mandalorian
Chris Sullivan, This Is Us
Who will win:
This is a tough category with so many great performances, but my gut is saying The Handmaid’s Tales votes will split themselves, and that Tobias Menzies will walk away with the win. This is a dark and cynical thing to say, but Michael K. Williams died after the voting window closed, and is probably not going to win this by being a sentimental vote. DON’T LOOK AT ME THAT WAY, IT’S TRUE.
Who should win:
John Lithgow was fantastic in Perry Mason, but again, any of these men are deserving.
Who was snubbed:
Nate Corddry in Perry Mason; Eric Lange in Perry Mason
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Gillian Anderson, The Crown
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Emerald Fennell, The Crown
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale
Madeline Brewer, The Handmaid’s Tale
Aunjanue Ellis, Lovecraft Country
Who will win:
I mean, who knows. The nominations are dominated by two shows — both good shows with great roles for women — but do they split the vote, and this goes to Aunjanue Ellis? Probably not. Again, I think this will be a big night for The Crown, and if I had to guess who gets this, maybe Gillian Anderson? I have no idea.
Who should win:
I tend to think if Ann Dowd is nominated, Ann Dowd should win.
Who was snubbed:
Aya Cash in The Boys; Dominique Jackson in Pose; Gayle Rankin in Perry Mason; Lily Taylor in Perry Mason;
Outstanding Comedy Series
Black-ish
Cobra Kai
Pen15
Emily in Paris
Hacks
Ted Lasso
The Flight Attendant
The Kominsky Method
Who will win:
Ted Lasso. I mean, I could write more, I guess, but why? Ted Lasso was not just the best comedy of the year, it was the best show of the year, and it will win.
Who should win:
Ted Lasso
Who was snubbed:
A.P. Bio; Girls5Eva; Mr. Mayor; Shameless; The Conners
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
William H. Macy, Shameless
Kenan Thompson, Kenan
Who will win:
Jason Sudeikis
Who should win:
Jason Sudeikis
Who was snubbed:
Glenn Howerton in A.P. Bio; Ted Danson in Mr. Mayor; William Zabka and Ralph Macchio in Cobra Kai
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Aidy Bryant, Shrill
Jean Smart, Hacks
Allison Janney, Mom
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
Who will win:
Jean Smart
Who should win:
Jean Smart forever. (That said, Kaley Cuoco was a revelation in The Flight Attendant and I wouldn’t be mad at all.)
Who was snubbed:
Maya Erskine in Pen15; Anna Konkle in Pen15; Renée Elise Goldsberry in Girls5Eva; Sara Gilbert in The Conners
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
Brendan Hunt, Ted Lasso
Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Swift, Ted Lasso
Paul Reiser, The Kominsky Method
Carl Clemons-Hopkins, Hacks
Who will win:
Again, this is rough because there are so many Ted Lasso nominations here, which is great! But it is going to split the vote. My gut feeling is that Brett Goldstein will get it, but keep an eye on Kenan Thompson — Saturday Night Live has won in this category seven times, and Thompson is definitely deserving, having carried that show on his back for years now.
Who should win:
Brett Goldstein.
Who was snubbed:
Jeremy Alan White in Shameless
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live
Aidy Bryant, Saturday Night Live
Rosie Perez, The Flight Attendant
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
Who will win:
Juno Temple — but! again, don’t count the Saturday Night Live women out.
Who should win:
Actually, I’m going to go rogue here and say Rosie Perez for The Flight Attendant. She was truly heartbreaking in the role and gave her character such depth and dimension.
Who was snubbed:
Zosia Mamet in The Flight Attendant; Busy Philips in Girls5Eva;
Outstanding Limited Series
Mare of Easttown
I May Destroy You
WandaVision
The Queen’s Gambit
The Underground Railroad
Who will win:
Mare of Easttown, which was not just the best limited series of the year, it was the best drama of the year. That said, this is an amazing list of shows (and it’s not entirely clear that Mare will even end up being a limited series, as HBO is looking at renewing it for a second season. TV is really weird right now.) and I’d be genuinely happy to see any of these win. There’s a real argument to be made for each and every series here.
Who should win:
Mare, but if I had to choose a series that is definitely going to be a limited drama and not return for another season, I might actually choose WandaVision, which — until it became another Marvel product towards the final episodes — was not just a heartbreaking rumination on grief and trauma, but a brilliant BRILLIANT! love letter to the sitcom form. Just a wonderful little series (again, right up to the point when it suddenly remembered it was supposed to be a superhero series).
Who was snubbed:
The Good Lord Bird, end list.
And no, I did not forget The Undoing. Boo to that series.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Paul Bettany, WandaVision
Hugh Grant, The Undoing
Ewan McGregor, Halston
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom Jr., Hamilton
Who will win:
Lin-Manuel Miranda
Who should win:
Lin-Manuel deserves this. But I’m also genuinely torn between Paul Bettany and — this will surprise you, Hugh Grant. While I did not care for The Undoing, I have to admit, Grant gave a hell of a performance in an infuriating project.
Who was snubbed:
Ethan Hawke for The Good Lord Bird
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown
Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
Elizabeth Olsen, WandaVision
Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha
Who will win:
Kate Winslet
Who should win:
Again, I’m torn here, between Michaela Coel and Elizabeth Olsen. They both gave powerful, memorable performances in difficult roles.
Who was snubbed:
Thuso Mbedu in The Underground Railroad
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Jean Smart, Mare of Easttown
Julianne Nicholson, Mare of Easttown
Kathryn Hahn, WandaVision
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton
Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton
Moses Ingram, The Queen’s Gambit
Who will win:
Kathryn Hahn stole the show in WandaVision. It’s equally likely Jean Smart, Julianne Nicholson or Renee Elise Goldsberry could win here, so this is a real nail-biter.
Who should win:
Kathryn Hahn
Who was snubbed:
Angourie Rice for Mare of Easttown, if only for mastering that accent; Isla Johnson in The Queen’s Gambit
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
Anthony Ramos, Hamilton
Thomas Brodie-Sangster, The Queen’s Gambit
Evan Peters, Mare of Easttown
Paapa Essiedu, I May Destroy You
Who will win:
There’s a good chance Daveed Diggs could take this, and Jonathan Groff is literally the best thing in a wonderful Hamilton, but if there’s justice in the world, it would go to Evan Peters. I’ve been watching Evan Peters on American Horror Story for a decade now, and this says more about that dumb show than anything else, but I honestly had no idea he was this great an actor.
Who should win:
Evan Peters
Who was snubbed:
Bill Camp for The Queen’s Gambit
Outstanding Television Movie
Uncle Frank
Sylvie’s Love
Oslo
Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia
Dolly Parton’s Christmas on The Square
Who will win:
Wait, where’s Hamilton?
Who should win:
Hold up, they put Hamilton in Variety Specials?
Who was snubbed:
Why would they put Hamilton in Variety Specials, but nominate the actors and the director for Television Movie? HOW DOES THAT MAKE ANY SENSE?
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
A Black Lady Sketch Show
Saturday Night Live
Who will win:
Saturday Night Live
Who should win:
Saturday Night Live but Black Lady Sketch Show is really great and it would be a huge deal if it won.
Who was snubbed:
I genuinely can not think of another sketch show out there right now that would be eligible for this ceremony? (Shows have to have been broadcast between June 1, 2020, and May 31, 2021, so I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson, for instance, is not eligible.)
Outstanding Variety Talk Series
Conan
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Who will win:
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Who should win:
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Who was snubbed:
LATE NIGHT WITH SETH MEYERS AND HOW DARE YOU, SIRS.
Outstanding Competition Program
The Amazing Race
Nailed It!
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Top Chef
The Voice
Who will win:
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Who should win:
Top Chef but I’d be thrilled with Drag Race, too
Who was snubbed:
So many reality shows out there, so few actually good ones.
Again, good luck to all the very deserving nominees, and I’ll see you kittens on the other side.